Yoon’s ‘audacious initiative’ for NK denuclearization hangs in balance

Pyongyang unlikely to change mind anytime soon: experts

President Yoon Suk Yeol on Wednesday named South Korean Ambassador to the U.S. Cho Tae-yong as his new national security director, following the sudden resignation of his predecessor Kim Sung-han.

“President Yoon decided after contemplation to accept National Security Director Kim’s offer to resign,” senior presidential secretary for public relations Kim Eun-hye said in a press briefing. “And the president tapped Ambassador Cho as the new national security director.”

She added that Cho’s successor will be nominated soon.

The announcement came just a month before Yoon is to make a state visit to the U.S. and have a summit with President Joe Biden on April 26.

Cho is one of the diplomatic experts who helped map out the foreign policy platform for Yoon’s presidential election campaign last year, along with the outgoing director and Kim Tae-hyo, the first deputy director of national security.

Cho is a career diplomat with more than 30 years of experience and has a reputation as an expert versed in South Korea’s relations with the United States and Seoul’s strategy in countering North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. Under the previous Park Geun-hye administration, Cho served as the first vice foreign minister and first deputy director of national security. Before that, Cho was Seoul’s chief envoy to six-party talks aimed to end North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.

During the Park administration, Cho mostly engaged in talks with key officials of the Barack Obama administration, including current Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Since many of these officials are now part of the Biden administration, pundits say that Cho is well-connected with the U.S.

His solid connections with U.S. officials were showcased when he accompanied Yoon for a meeting with U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Sung Kim last April when Yoon was president-elect.

After becoming the U.S. ambassador, Cho earned a reputation for his frequent meetings with U.S. officials and South Korean stakeholders in the U.S. On March 20, Cho had a meeting with U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai and discussed pending economic issues between the two countries, such as the Inflation Reduction Act and chips act subsidy program.

In regard to North Korea, Cho has been advocating for the U.S. extended deterrence as a tool to contain Pyongyang’s threats. During the National Assembly’s government audit last October, Cho said the most important thing in countering the North’s threats is “strengthening the extended deterrence.”

Cho is now in Seoul to attend an annual meeting of South Korean chiefs of overseas diplomatic missions, and the presidential office said he will start moving into his new position immediately.

Cho’s nomination came minutes after Kim announced his intention to resign in a text message sent to reporters, saying he hopes “the country’s diplomacy and state affairs will not be affected by controversies stemming from me.” Recently, news reports and speculations have been alleging that Yoon may consider replacing Kim over confusion in handling the president’s diplomatic activities, following the surprise resignations of protocol and foreign affairs secretaries earlier this month.

Escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula, triggered by North Korea’s pursuit of an “exponential” increase in its nuclear arsenal, are making President Yoon Suk Yeol’s “audacious initiative” for Pyongyang’s denuclearization look like an increasingly far-fetched idea, according to analysts, Wednesday.

The initiative, proposed by Yoon last year, promises the North Korean government an unprecedented level of economic support in exchange for the country ultimately giving up its nuclear weapons. Yoon suggested a list of economic incentives such as large-scale food aid, providing assistance for power generation and building infrastructure in the country.

However, the initiative is facing an uncertain future at this point, with Yoon sticking to a hardline stance on North Korea amid its rising belligerence in recent months.

Last week, the president said his administration will make North Korea pay the price for its nuclear threats. On Tuesday, Yoon said he will “not give a single penny to North

Korea if it continues to develop nuclear weapons.” He also ordered the Ministry of Unification to disclose the reality of the human rights situation in North Korea, a sensitive topic for the totalitarian state.

Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, believes that Yoon’s audacious plan is losing momentum.

“In order for the plan to kick off, North Korea should first show significant steps toward denuclearization. But realistically speaking, Pyongyang will not give up its advanced nuclear prowess,” he told The Korea Times.

On the previous day, North Korea released photos of its Hwasan-31, which appeared to be a miniaturized nuclear warhead. The state media reported that its leader Kim Jong-un had called for boosting the production of weapons-grade nuclear materials to exponentially expand the country’s nuclear arsenal.

“To this day, there hasn’t been any country which relinquished nuclear weapons that it developed on its own,” Hong said, stressing that North Korea will not be the first country to do so.

Nonetheless, the researcher anticipated that the South Korean government will not officially abandon the denuclearization roadmap.

“Although chances of materializing the initiative seem slim, the plan itself sends a strong political message to the international community. It is important to consistently ask for support from other countries on achieving North Korea’s denuclearization,” he said.

Unification Minister Kwon Youngse visited Tokyo last week to upgrade bilateral cooperation with Japan on North Korea issues including Yoon’s proposed initiative. North Korean state media slammed Kwon’s move, Monday, saying that “he begged for support for the ‘audacious plan of some kind’ that has been already trashed.”

Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, said the initiative is hanging in the balance due to North Korea’s reluctance to come to the negotiating table.

“South Korea and the United States have repeatedly said they are open to talks. But North Korea has no intention to negotiate, which would mean that it has to surrender its nuclear weapons to some extent,” he said.

Nevertheless, the professor was quite optimistic that Pyongyang will ultimately turn to negotiations, which will enable Yoon to make progress with his plan. Park cautiously predicted that the North Korean leader may restart talks after conducting a seventh nuclear test this year, and use it as leverage in negotiations.